Why Everyone Should Back Sarah Stock and The Fighting For Grantham Hospital (F4GH) Campaign.

Those unfamiliar with Lincolnshire may be unaware of one of the most important issues facing our county: the restricted hours of Grantham Hospital's Accident and Emergency (A&E) department. An announcement was made by United Lincolnshire Hospitals Trust (ULHT) on the 13th August that the A&E would be closed for 3 months between 18:30 and 09:00  as part of a "trial" by management due to a shortage of doctors from 17 August 2016. It was revealed that the A&E was operating with just 14 consultants and 12 registrars when an average A&E in England and Wales is expected to have 15 consultants and 28 registrars. The move sparked wide condemnation across the county and a protest was held outside the hospital because it was said overnight closure would put patient lives at risk as they would be forced to travel to Lincoln County Hospital's A&E. At the time the closure was announced, Lincolnshire Police and Crime Commissioner Marc Jones said that any overnight restriction to A&E services in the Grantham area would "waste police time" because police officers would need to accompany suspects to the nearest A&E in Lincoln and County Council Leader Martin Hill said that the 120,000 people affected by the overnight closure were just expected to "phone 111" in the event of an emergency and hope for the best. 130 protestors gathered outside the hospital to protest the closure and they slowly became more and more vocal. A new campaign was born thanks to Jody Clark along with Melissa Darcey and Sarah Stock (who has been a nurse for 28 years) at its helm. Sarah joined the campaign soon after she had treatment for her breast cancer because she was scared that because of the possibility of post-operative complications she'd not be able to get to the A&E overnight...she'd have to travel back to Nottingham to get treatment by which time she might be fighting for her life. Extremely scary thought for any cancer patient discharged to go home but not having reasonable access to emergency care.

Thanks to the efforts of Jody, Melissa and Sarah and the Fight For Grantham Hospital Campaign, a "walk-in" centre was organised by Lincolnshire Community Health Services Trust that would cover the evening hours between 18:30 and 23:30 but it isn't seen as a replacement for the A&E service, more a temporary stop-gap whilst ULHT focussed on recruiting more registrars and consultants to get the A&E service back open. Once the 3 months of the "trial" were over, managers came back to protestors and announced that the A&E could not re-open as they had only recruited 9 doctors and they were yet to go through an induction period. Melissa Darcey remained unconvinced that ULHT will bother re-opening the A&E again but that she and the F4GH campaign would continue. A 6,000 strong protest was held on the 29th October which demonstrated the sheer unpopularity of the decision to shut the A&E during the early hours of the morning.

When Sleaford and North Hykeham's Conservative MP and Leave voter Stephen Phillips unexpectedly resigned from his seat on the 4th November citing "irreconcilable differences" with Theresa May and the Government over their approach to Brexit, Sarah saw an opportunity to get the Government to listen to Lincolnshire residents' concerns over NHS services and decided to stand as an Independent candidate. As Sarah said during her candidate interview with The Lincolnite, she'd been one of those people who had "shouted at the TV" whenever politicians talked about the NHS or public services but like many working class professionals across the country, Sarah admitted that a  "level of apathy had set in because of a feeling that we can't change things". It's not easy when you see a Conservative majority in areas such as Sleaford and North Hykeham that never seems to face a serious challenge Sarah feels she has "woken up from the anesthetic with a passion and anger" so she can fight with gumption against public service cuts. She quite rightly points out that London policies do not work in Lincolnshire and new solutions are needed that work for people within the Sleaford and North Hykeham constituency. Designing service provision that takes into account the needs of all people within the constituency may be difficult but absolutely essential in an age where voters feel services need to reflect exact need. Also there are calls for funding to be devolved to regional areas so they councils, hospital trusts, police forces and schools can take more control over how they spend taxpayers money. Also, voters want to be able to rebuke those who are accountable for delivering those services to make sure they are value for money but also productive and effective.

At the very least, Sarah's presence in the by-election campaign cycle raises awareness of what is currently happening to Lincolnshire NHS services and to air concerns at a regional and national level. It is quite telling that Sarah was the only candidate to consistently back protestors holding nightly vigils outside Grantham Hospital, even the night before the election. That's what real dedication to constituents looks like. Being able to go wherever you are needed in the constituency, whatever time of the day or night it happens to be or how ever warm or cold it may be. An MP should be able to act with strength of their convictions and make policy decisions that allow them to stand up to the Government to hold them accountable, no matter how powerful that Government may appear to the public.

Why is the Grantham Hospital A&E Closure causing so much frustration in Sleaford and North Hykeham?

The NHS is one of the most talked about issues on the doorsteps of Sleaford and North Hykeham and constituents care deeply about trying to prevent further budgetary cuts as well as attempting to reverse cuts that have already been made to frontline hospital services. Support to re-open Grantham's A&E department has cross-party support but the solutions offered by the candidates and timescales seem pretty different. Sarah was the only candidate to mention the 2010 national directive that had a hit-list of 66 hospitals to be permanently closed which Grantham's A&E and Boston Pilgrim Hospital's A&E were mentioned. Over half of the hospitals on the list have already been closed or downgraded. There is a real possibility that emergency care could become centralised and offered only at Lincoln County Hospital where waiting times have increased dramatically and services are stretched in the winter period due to increase incidents of falls, alcohol related injuries and life-threatening infections. So the question is, how will ULHT justify centralisation? It hasn't been discussed widely enough.

Interesting then that a document pertaining to the ULHT's thoughts regarding the future of Grantham and Boston's A&E departments was leaked to the BBC's regional team for the constituency-(BBC Look North) only days before voters go to the polls. Whether this was designed to influence voters to steer clear of the Conservatives or not, the Lincolnshire Sustainability and Transformation Plan (STP) blatantly shows that that managers at Grantham knew that the ULHT were considering closing the A&E department on a permanent basis but managers have quickly released a statement which confirmed there was "no definite plan" to close it. Campaigners who are part of the Fighting For Grantham Hospital (F4GH) Group were quick to point out that the STP suggests that Grantham A&E might at the very least be downgraded to an "Urgent Care Centre" but they "won't accept this at all". However the closure of Grantham's A&E department wasn't the only recommendation made in the document...there is also some suggestion that maternity services may end up being centralised in Lincolnshire which means that mothers have to make the journey to Lincoln County Hospital if they want to give birth away from home. This could be potentially dangerous. We have barely enough midwives to travel around rural Lincolnshire as it is.

The full STP was released online yesterday afternoon and I've been taking a look at it. On the first page detailing the vision for ULHT, central aims are revealed including reducing "bed stock" by 2019/20 and delivering "a smaller but more resilient acute sector" which would involve a certain amount of centralisation of services by 2019/20. This seems to indicate that there could  be a reduction in service at Grantham over the next few years. As you continue reading the document it is clear that ULHT want to downsize their hospital system because they genuine believe it will make it "more resilient and sustainable".(p11) and points to past successes ULHT have had in centralising services such as The Lincolnshire Heart Centre (p11). Such words would not be music to the ears of Sleaford and North Hykeham constituents who want close reasonable access to emergency services as and when they need it. Travelling from Sleaford to Grantham is reasonable; travelling from Sleaford to Lincoln less so.

In the STP, ULHT managers admit that the trust hasn't met their 4 hour waiting target since the summer of 2014 and have far too many patients coming to A&E which has led to "crowded and uncomfortable waits" (p36). The STP also mentions that 40% of people who attend A&E in Lincs leave "without the need for any treatment". Between April 2015 and April 2016, 154,128 people went to A&E but only 40, 727 were admitted to hospital (p36).  ULHT are also aiming for  27.5% fewer A&E admissions by 2020/1 which inevitably means more focus on trying to reduce footfall in Grantham and Boston. Quite how that will be achieved seems to be open to debate; no doubt more 101 call handlers will be suggesting patients wait until the morning to visit their local GP surgery or to visit the A&E when the department is fully staffed.

One suggestion made by the STP is the establishment of a 24 hour Urgent Care Centre (UCC) at Grantham. Melissa Darcey and Sarah Stock believe that changing the department without the need for widespread public consultation is wrong.  There are differences between an A&E department and a UCC in terms of the types of conditions they can treat: UCCs can treat patients who have sustained minor injuries such as sprains and strains, scalds, eye infections and broken bones but only A&Es can treat people who have sustained major blood loss, lost consciousness, breathing difficulties and chest/stomach pains. This isn't a change of use in hospital space that should be approved without public consultation. On top of this, the STP also reveals that more than 500 posts within the ULHT are expected to go and the jobs cuts won't just be in back office or managerial positions. 375 posts that are classified within the "core skills" category (i.e. front line staff) are earmarked to go, including nurses. At a time when NHS already feel demoralised and overworked, to even think of reducing staff just to reach a short term budgetary goal seems ridiculous.

So it is incredibly important to keep a close eye on what's going on at Grantham and Boston Hospitals. If ULHT management are not considering re-opening the A&E over a long term period as indicated in their STP, protests will continue and the need for more voices to oppose STP cuts will be needed. I'd urge tweeters to follow the Fight For Grantham Hospital Twitter handle...@F4GH and the FB page here...https://www.facebook.com/groups/158598821210992/. Show your support and keep yourselves informed about STPs that may be being formulated within your own hospital trust areas.

Sarah's a breath of fresh air....

Another reason why everyone should be backing Sarah Stock is because her views on Brexit are possibly the most refreshing I have heard from someone wanting to become a politician since June. In some ways I do see the need to look at foreign aid and there has been a lot of scaremongering by both sides of the Brexit campaigner. The real shock was the fact that there wasn't a plan for Brexit.. the Leave campaign did not have a plan. Sarah's a "Soft Brexiteer" because we need the links with the EU that allow citizens who work in the NHS to keep their jobs. The Government needs a clear plan on the table for Brexit and I'm sure that Sarah is glad as am I that May will be made to reveal at least the basic outline of her plan to Parliament so that opposition parties can properly scrutinise it before Article 50 is triggered in March (as the vote taken yesterday provides for).

I want to believe that we will have opportunities that come to Yellowbelly SMEs post-Brexit but we must ensure that we maintain our essential workers rights and environmental protections and not allow them to be burned as part of a bonfire on red tape. Yes some regulations are extremely tedious and we can probably live without them but we must not back down when it comes to safeguarding access Statutory Sick Pay and Maternity and Paternity and Adoption Pay and Statutory Maternity and Paternity Leave for employees. We need to make sure no future Government attempts to weaken the Equality Act or try and get us to back away from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Many Leave voters are passionate about these basic protections and would defend the idea anyone who is a decent, law abiding person should have access to them. Sarah's right when she says we should not attack EU citizens who work in our NHS, study at our university and work in the agricultural sector. Voters may want immigration controls of some kind but that doesn't mean they want to demonstrate a lack of compassion and empathy when it needs to be shown. Nobody in the Lincolnshire area should feel it is acceptable to shout "Leave" at a Lithuanian student on the streets of Sleaford. Nobody should stop serving a Polish agricultural worker because of his nationality. Leave voters I know wouldn't dream of saying such things in public or private and those that voted Remain need to realise that not all Leave voters suddenly upped political sticks and decided to vote UKIP or god forbid, try and revive the fortunes of the BNP. We need to start having conversations that allow us to identify common ground. Accept that your Leave voting Uncle may have had different reasons to vote other than immigration and they should accept your concerns about workers rights and environmental protections. If we can have these frank conversations in our Lincolnshire community centres, pubs and theatre spaces, then people can have them across the country. Be prepared to scrutinise Government plans and point out issues and praise positives in the plans where you find them, regardless of your preference. Then maybe "Brexiteer" politicians and "Remoaner" campaigners on the extremes of the debate can start finding common ground themselves. That's one positive legacy that should come out from Sarah's campaign.

I hope that Sarah does gain a bundle of votes today. If not, I want her to know this. Please consider standing in Grantham for the next General Election if Grantham A&E does not reopen fully and/or Boston maternity services get threatened with downgrading/closure. Your voice would be fantastic to have in the Commons and I bet the people of Grantham would get behind you very keenly now you are in the Yellowbelly public eye!

 

Why You Should Vote Lib Dem In Sleaford and North Hykeham

So you've heard about the stunning Richmond Park victory where a Liberal  Democrat "newbie", Sarah Olney managed to overturn a mahoosive majority and you want to know whether you can help do the same in Sleaford and North Hykeham but you don't know whether the Lib Dems are the party to do it. I voted Remain in the EU Referendum but I'm an independent voter when it comes to usual elections, but I've quite warmed to Ross Pepper and the Lib Dems since his profile has been raised on social media and his relatively competent The Lincolnite interview. So here's a few reasons why you should consider voting specifically Lib Dem on Thursday and I'll list them below:

• Ross is the only major party candidate who voted to Remain in the EU Referendum. It seems obvious that it doesn't seem like a popular position to reveal in a constituency that voted 62.3% to Leave but Ross's take on Brexit strategy is that there should be a 2nd Referendum based on the terms of the Brexit deal that will be negotiated by Theresa May's Conservative government with the EU so that constituents can decide  for themselves whether or not to accept the terms and exit the EU or reject them for a better deal. This is why Ross will not vote to invoke Article 50 in Parliament unless a 2nd Referendum is agreed on.
• Ross understands the importance of remaining in the Single Market for farmers who want to avoid having to pay excessive tariffs to export their food to EU countries such as The Netherlands, France and Germany. The National Farmers Union, NFU, has said recently there could be a decrease in exports if tariffs get imposed on UK produce and since we rely on the EU to import 75% of that produce, farmers could end up being forced out of business or cut production, which could lead to job losses in the constituency. 
• There is also a need to maintain adequate funding for research projects conducted by agricultural scientists. I'm concerned to read that Ross has heard directly from several firms in the Sleaford and NH constituency who fear that a "brain drain" might happen as a consequence of leaving the EU because "the best and brightest! will be recruited by competitors based in the EU who will still benefit from having guaranteed funding streams.
• Ross wants to tackle climate change on an international basis, making sure that May sticks to the Paris Agreement ratified last month. This means encouraging new renewable energy schemes in the constituency and opposing fracking.
• Ross wants to make sure there is funding in place for appropriate flood prevention schemes in place for Sleaford and the surrounding villages such as Osbournby.
• Ross believes that we need stronger ties with allies in the EU so that Lincs Police can work collaboratively with EU counterparts and police services to prevent fraud, cyber attacks and the possibility of terrorist attacks taking place in areas such as Lincoln or Sleaford.
• Ross is against the creation of a "Super hub" Hospital at Lincoln, instead arguing that there has to be more funding in place for Grantham and Boston to prevent them from being "downgraded".
• Ross supporters the reinstatement of 24 hour A&E services at Grantham Hospital and will speak directly to management and Jeremy Hunt to try and speed up the recruitment process.  
• Ross supports the idea of the establishment of a Lincolnshire Medical School that will train doctors as well as nurses at the University of Lincoln.
• Ross wants to see more funding for Lincolnshire based Mental Health and Social Care services; it is vital that there are enough care workers who can carry out their duties without feeling under pressure to "clock-in" on time.
• Ross is committed to strengthening the Equality Act, ensuring that protections for workers from the LGBTQIA community are maintained and look into questioning Government policies relating to cuts to disability benefits and benefit sanctions.
• Ross is in favour of lobbying for funding for improvements to the A15; drivers need to feel safe and secure whilst travelling on the roads around the constituency.

If you like the sound of even a few of these policies, I'd urge you to consider voting for Ross Pepper on Thursday. Lincolnshire deserves to be given the funding it needs to help maintain our police force, our NHS, our primary and secondary schools, our community recycling centres, our refuse services, our street lighting and our parks and recreational areas. Transport infrastructure is in desperate need of upgrading and the odd pity payment here and there for pothole repairs isn't quite going to cut it anymore. Yellowbellies are not greedy folk but isn't it about time that our voices and our votes were truly taken seriously by the "powers that be" down Westminster way? There are many funding decisions that can be made before (or if) we leave the EU. There are no excuses for funding shortfalls anymore. Send this clear message to May: Fund us appropriately or face mass rebellion against the Conservatives at the polls at the next General Election. I say that as someone who voted Conservative last year and Remain on the 23rd June but will not consider doing so again whilst May and the Brexiteers are in charge. The time for enacting political change is now but let's do it without resorting to divisive hyperbolic claims about migrants coming to Sleaford and causing epidemics and mass unemployment within professions that British born locals have currently shown little interest in doing. Vote for progressive, inclusive, thoughtful policies and ideas. Vote for Ross!

Why The Sleaford and North Hykeham By-Election Matters for the Conservatives...

So after a few days of basking in the glow of the phenomenal result for the Liberal Democrats in Richmond Park on Thursday when Accountant and proud Remain voter Sarah Olney overturned eco activist "Tory turned Independent Tory" millionaire Zac Goldsmith's majority of 23,015 and defiantly vowed to vote against invoking Article 50 in a parliamentary vote, all eyes now turn to the constituency which borders my own (Lincoln) - that of Sleaford and North Hykeham. There's a lot of enthusiastic Lib Dem supporters who are now convinced that they can overturn a similar Conservative majority of 24,115 in an area which voted to Leave the EU at 62.3% (with a high turnout figure of 78.4% in June). It's pie in the sky thinking to believe that Conservative Leave voters have suddenly had a change of heart RE Brexit based on the defeat of one Brexiteer in an area that voted overwhelmingly to Remain. Turnout at this by-election may be even higher than that in Richmond because of the shock nature of that result. Turnout at last year's General Election in Sleaford and North Hykeham was 70.2% and it may increase to figures akin to the EU Referendum percentage if Brexiteers feel they need to protect their mandate. More moderate Leave and moderate Remain voters will want to choose a candidate that will be best placed to help resolve local issues. Yet if candidates in the Sleaford and NH by-election focus predominately on Brexit and immigration issues and doesn't focus on addressing issues that are talked about daily on the doorstep (transportation, law and order, loss of 24 hour A&E service at Grantham Hospital, low wages and improving economic growth figures) they may not reach a potential voting group who matter most...first time Parliamentary voters who voted Remain the EU Referendum.

Lib Dem Threat:

At first glance it appears that the Conservative base have a lot to fear in this by-election. Firstly, they have a late surge to contend with from buoyant Lib Dems who may have a chance to gain votes from Conservative and Labour Remain voters who can't contemplate the thought of voting Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.  Ross Pepper, the Lib Dem candidate is a councillor from my nearest village, Skellingthorpe and just happens to be a member of the LGBTQIA community. I'd have to confess at this current time that I'd be torn between voting Labour and voting Lib Dem should a General Election be called, primarily based on my feelings RE Brexit. Ross seems very personable and his view on Brexit is that we need a 2nd referendum based on the deal that we get from the EU negotiated by May's Government. I think that the idea of a 2nd Referendum is sound but may not get traction with moderate voters who are "sick to death with referenda" and do not want a repeat of the hate discourse thrown around during the campaign.

The Lib Dem vote in Sleaford and North Hykeham in last year's election was only 5.7%, down 12.5% from 2010 when they actually placed 2nd ahead of Labour and UKIP. If the Lib Dems are hoping for a resounding victory on Thursday, they may also need to convince moderate Leave voters to place their trust in Ross that he will fight against "hard Brexit" proposed by far-right Conservatives. Trust is a little tarnished after the inaction of the Lib Dems in the Coalition Government to oppose austerity cuts and unwanted top-down reorganisation of NHS services in Lincolnshire as well as the abject failure of Clegg, Farron et al to see the need for transportation upgrades for rural roads between Sleaford and North Hykeham. The Lib Dems are still held responsible for the disastrous rise in tuition fees to £9,000, a key campaign promise broken by Clegg.

UKIP Threat:

Secondly the Conservatives have an irksome challenge from UKIP, whose candidate, Victoria Ayling, wants to force the Government to trigger Article 50 right now or "even better, immediately repeal the European Communities Act (1972)." Ayling's campaign calls for a "real Brexit", pretty much regardless of any initial economic consequences for the area. Yes, her words do have traction, especially in Sleaford and the surrounding villages. Working class voters are encouraged by Ayling's tough stance on seasonal agricultural workers and her promise of trying to increase the number of "bobbies on the beat" which will be funded by money saved from the UK's EU budget. Farmers and business owners who voted to Leave in June may be more sympathetic to Ayling and UKIP because they believe the sooner we are out of Europe's Single Market, the quicker we can build trading relationships with countries such as China and India and have a chance to convince Farage worshipper Donnie Drumpf to construct a super-mega dope tailored trade deal with the UK based pretty much on his word being law. Personally speaking, whilst I accept there is real frustration over the length of time it's taking to formulate some kind of Brexit plan to ensure that protocol is respected, at least the UK isn't rushing into the Brexit process like a Trumpian bull in a pro-Taiwanese independence Fine Bone China store. Ayling doesn't exactly have the best track record when it comes to displaying the tact required to represent Lincolnshire on the national stage. Yes she taps into the frustration of voters who want to send a message to the Government by "holding their feet to the fire" by "reversing" the Lib Dem win in Richmond and yes she taps into mixed feelings over immigration into Lincolnshire from the EU, especially from Eastern Europe but I doubt most voters share some of her more bizarre views. Ayling's intolerance and lack of compassion was exposed for all to see in the EU Referendum debate held in Lincoln on the 13th June 2016 by The Lincolnite when she cheered and then defended a man's claim that EU migrants brought diseases with them into the UK which would "spread like wildfire" in areas such as Boston and Skegness. Such hysteria over imagined health epidemics is absurd and unfounded and Ayling feeding the flames of such hyperbole was as unwelcome as a lump of coal on a mild Christmas morning.

Conservative Advantage?:

Ayling and UKIP aside, the Conservatives have a massive fight on their hands to keep onto the seat. Conservative candidate, Dr Caroline Johnson, a consultant paediatrician from Sleaford is certainly well liked by her local Conservative branch - her stance on securing the future of the NHS in Lincolnshire by fighting for the reinstatement of a 24-hour Accident and Emergency service at Grantham Hospital (which many residents in Sleaford depend on) coupled with her overt commitment to honouring May's "Brexit Means Brexit" pledge may play well with voters who want "a safe pair of hands" to look after them in Parliament. Johnson's recent campaigning with Lincoln MP Karl McCartney on the proposed Eastern bypass which has led to an investment of £50m being approved by the Government will have garnered some support from North Hykeham locals who believe that the county's roads need to be improved to make them safe and secure in the 21st century. Lincolnshire County Council also gaining £2.5m from the Government's Pothole fund is also welcome, considering this will help repair 46,800 potholes (according to Lincolnshire County Council's website). That being said, if you listen to Dr Johnson's The Lincolnite  interview, you'd be forgiven in thinking that the Junior Doctors are now 100% happy that Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt's contract has been imposed on them and that there won't be any further industrial action from those who are yet to move onto the contract. Dr Johnson's lack of awareness about the proposal from several key Lincolnshire County Councillors for a Lincolnshire specific Medical Training School did take me aback. That, coupled with little acceptance of failures by HR managers at Grantham Hospital to ensure there was adequate staffing levels to keep the A&E open 24 hours a day and little awareness of concerns over GP surgeries closing across the Sleaford and NH constituency (including in Metheringham) and GPs being overwhelmed with administrative management duties that takes them away from front-line patient care didn't strike much confidence in me that Dr Johnson would fight hard for the NHS. Ms Ayling and Mr Pepper do talk about the need for more training facilities in Lincolnshire and to reduce GP paperwork pressures and this could take vital votes away from Dr Johnson on Thursday.

However, one major advantage that I've seen on social media that Ms Ayling doesn't necessarily have is a party outreach network in villages across the constituency. After all, it's not all about Sleaford this election. Dr Johnson can rely on Conservative councillors such as Osbournby's Kate Cook to talk to constituents direct about how Johnson's policies might improve life for villagers in Osbournby and councillors can filter back concerns and ideas generated directly to Dr Johnson. In Osbournby, it's not just about whether Brexit happens. It's about whether their MP will advocate for more vital public to be restored to the village (such as regular bus services to Sleaford), whether their driveways will be adequately gritted by the County Council so that elderly residents won't fall whilst they embark on  their morning constitutional walk and whether the primary school and nursery will continue to receive the Government funding needed to keep them open for the next 4 years. Villagers want to entrust their vote to an MP who will be prepared to help them when their backs are against the wall thanks to sharp Local Government cuts.

North Hykeham, where my grandparents lived for over 30 years, is overwhelmingly Conservative in political leaning. Residents there are concerned about immigration but also about whether there will be more bobbies on the beat, whether they are going to lose street lighting altogether in the early hours of the morning, whether there will be another road built to ease traffic congestion in the area and whether their MP will help stimulate job growth by promoting local companies nationally, including those who rely on Lincoln tourists to balance their books. In 2014, more than 1.5m people visited Lincoln with £58.8m generated for the local economy and business owners who live in the Sleaford and NH have benefited from this. So a candidate for the constituency has to be willing to promote Sleaford's tourist assets and amenities, including the National Centre for Craft and Design as well as key events, such as the Farmers' Market and the Heckington Show. I've not heard Ms Ayling talk at length about the benefits of tourism but Dr Johnson has talked about the importance of marketing Sleaford and NH to the rest of the UK.

RAF Cranwell falls within the constituency and Lincolnshire does have a proud tradition of military service and any candidate has to understand the need to support veterans and active members of the Armed Forces. Lip service will not do. Constituents in the forces want to know whether their next MP will oppose any cuts that are proposed for the base, even if they happen when their own party is in Government. They want to know whether their MP will advocate for better mental health services for veterans in the constituency, whether there will be enough affordable housing in the constituency for veterans to go to, whether there are enough well paid jobs for veterans in local small businesses to help them earn a decent wage and whether their MP will stand with them on Remembrance Sunday and actively promote charities such as the British Legion.

Sleaford and North Hykeham constituents also care very much about the health of Lincolnshire's agricultural sector. The estimated value for the sector that was given in DEFRA's Agriculture in the UK survey of 2006 is £1050 million and 32,000 people are estimated to be directly employed in the sector. Many villagers buy produce from Farmers' Markets such as the one that takes place on the first Saturday of every month in Sleaford whenever it is possible for them to commute to Sleaford to do it. Some even buy direct from the farmers themselves. Any MP for the area must be prepared to meet with farmers on a regular basis to discuss their concerns; the Lincolnshire Forum for Agriculture and Horticulture is one such group. Dr Johnson has the obvious advantage of being married to a local farmer so should have more than a basic awareness of the issues. Another advantage that Dr Johnson has over Ms Ayling is that there is still some leadway in Brexit discussions to protect membership of the Single Market and the National Farmers Union (NFU), which will have members from the constituency, want to maintain tariff free access to it , because75% of exported produce goes to the EU. The NFU say they embrace a future outside the EU but concerns over funding shortfalls  (after the loss of subsidies), possible restrictions over seasonal labour and the need to market Lincolnshire produce abroad have to be addressed by the next MP. Whilst I haven't heard Dr Johnson's specific views on how to overcome these challenges, I'd be relatively confident she has some in the back of her mind.

Conclusion:

The Conservatives need to hold onto Sleaford and North Hykeham. Not only will a victory stop the momentum of the Lib Dems in their tracks, it will also stave off questions about the credibility of May's Brexit plans. You'd think that in a safe Conservative seat that voted to Leave that they would win it comfortably but voters have real concerns about how the Brexit mandate is being delivered or whether May will deliver Brexit at all. Ayling has capitalised on the vacuousness of the "Brexit Means Brexit "mantra, arguing that a win for her and UKIP will force May to "get on with it". Yet Conservatives may yet have their saviour in a local candidate who has a strong support network in villages surrounding Sleaford thanks to many councillors holding safe seats on the District and County Councils. Lib Dems can attack Dr Johnson when it comes to woeful government funding, but there is little evidence of a strong base of support in council representation to galvanise Remain voters to the polls and the fact that they are part of the administration controlling the County Council along with the Conservatives and 3 independents may put off voters, reminding them of Coalition days. It was great seeing activists and members coming to campaign in the area but there needs to be a growth in support over a number of years to bolster numbers back up to 2010 levels. I don't know for sure what will happen on Friday morning when the result is called but the Conservatives need to prepare themselves for a massive reduction in their majority at the very least and another lost seat at worst. Hopefully May, Eric Pickles (Communities and Local Government Secretary) and the rest of her stingy Government will finally realise that a "One Party" nation that works for all needs public services that are properly funded for all...not just the leafy prosperous Home Counties. The Conservatives may have delivered on their 2015 General Election promise to hold the EU Referendum and to advocate for Brexit but that doesn't mean they've been let off the hook for their failure to maintain transport infrastructure (apart from a few grandiose projects aimed at placating the electorate), their failure to properly resource police forces to keep up the number of front-line staff needed to help reassure residents that they are safe or the failure of Jeremy Hunt to put pressure on the management at United Lincolnshire Health Trust to get Grantham Hospital's A&E back open 24/7. Be aware May: Lincolnshire folk are awoke and they'll be watching you like a hawk regardless of the result of this unexpected yet very competitive by-election.