Sunday 24 September 2017

My thoughts on the Liberal Democrat Autumn Conference 2017:

Autumn conference season has started! #Yay! Let it rain down policy love! It's the time of the year when different party factions come together to bang their policy drums and try and convince delegates to support their ideas over the rival faction's ideas. First up, the Lib Dems' Autumn conference, which this year was held in the sunny southern seaside resort of Bournemouth, perhaps a rather interesting choice of venue given that Bournemouth voted to Leave the EU with a 9% majority (50,453 votes for Leave against 41,473 votes for Remain: https://www.bournemouth.gov.uk/ElectoralRegister/Elections/eu-referendum/eu-referendum-results.aspx). That aside, the conference seemed to me (watching certain speeches and motions from the comfort of my black and slightly worn out leather sofa) to be generally positive and conducted with progressive policy ideas being put forward throughout. Most mainstream media coverage predictably focussed on Brexit policy; after all the Lib Dems are unashamedly the self-proclaimed party of Remain voters but there was a lot more policy debated than just those related to Brexit issues. A number of motions were passed related to the recruitment and retention of teachers, safe housing standards and the welfare of armed forces personnel and veterans that deserves at least some attention and in my opinion, some praise. So before I go on to talk about my views RE Sir Vince Cable's speech and his references to Brexit, I do think it's fruitful to highlight some of the motions that have been passed by Lib Dem members at the Autumn Conference, bearing in mind that the policy substance contained within the motions does go on to form new Lib Dem policies and re-shape existing ones within the platform:
  •  F4: Learning to Communicate in English: This states that the Government should create a national ESOL strategy in England, with more collaboration between ESOL partners locally and an ESOL national champion appointed. The motion point to the fact that Government funding for ESOL courses has fallen by 60% in real terms between 2009 and 2016 and enrolment in state-funded ESOL courses has fallen by 43%. Also, each local authority should be required to publish a "Language Needs Assessment", that sets out the need for ESOL provision in their area, with state funded schools working with LAs to develop the LNA. Lib Dems believe that asylum seekers and refugees should have access to a minimum of 6 month's free ESOL from the moment they apply for asylum or at least the moment where they are granted asylum and are working in England so they reach the basic standard of English needed to "access the support they need". 
  • F16: Armed Forces Personnel: Recruitment, Retention and Welfare: The Lib Dems want to see a lifting of the 1% pay cap for the Armed Forces, along with "an urgent review into the recruitment of technical specialists across the Armed Forces" so they can help create new initiatives designed to increase recruitment. The Lib Dems also want to include a Veterans box on Census returns, a review into the Career Transition Partnership so that free further or higher education can be provided to all those veterans who served for at least 12 years and more access to mental health services for veterans. 
  • F21: Safe Building Standards: This motion commits the Lib Dems to vote for implementation of recommendations from the Grenfell Tower Inquiry. The Lib Dems also want to see fire safety measures implemented in all social and privately rented homes; this includes annual checks carried out by fire service personnel on all tall  buildings (above 4 storeys) in the UK and making fire evacuation drills mandatory in all buildings over 10 storeys "at times of peak occupancy by the end of June 2018". Electrical safety tests should be conducted in all social and privately rented homes. There are also calls for "a complete review of building regulations, especially in relation to cladding and sprinklers".
  • F23: Implementation of Universal Credit: The Lib Dems want to see changes made to the Universal Credit system, including the removal of the 7 day waiting period, ensuring that every claimant on UC are aware they can claim an Advance Payment whilst they wait for their first payment, introducing an online booking system for appointments with the Job Centre and changing the way UC is paid by allowing claimants to decide how they would like it to be paid. Lib Dems have reiterated the need for an end to the freeze on working-age benefits and reversing cuts to the Work Allowance so UC claimants can earn more before their benefits are cut.
  • F24: Defeating Terrorism, Protecting Liberties: This motion argues for a new approach to tackling terrorism, with the Prevent strategy being replaced with a new "Engage" strategy, which is inclusive and supporting grassroots community groups to take the lead in "tackling the dangers of violent extremism". The Lib Dems also want to see the Government scrap proposals to regulate the internet, believing that internet connection records should not be collected universally (is it right that the Government should be able to collect and store every web pages accessed in the UK for 12 months?) and instead want to introduce a Digital Bill of Rights that will enhance confidentiality and data protection in accordance with the EU General Data Protection Regulation. The Lib Dems also want to make sure that the Commission on Counter-Extremism is truly independent and that the UK remains a member of Europol and continue to take part in the European Arrest Warrant programme.  
  • F26: Employment in the 21st Century: Policies put forward in this motion include introducing a "dependent contractor" type of employment status that would be between employment and self-employment (recommended in the Taylor Review), bringing in new legal tests to determine employment status-e.g. looking at the amount of employer control over basic hours or income, ensuring that HMRC and employment tribunals enforce employment rights and changing the burden of proof requirement so that it is the employer, not the individual who has to prove the individual wasn't eligible for their employment right based on their employment status. The Lib Dems also want to see financial products created that can be used by those not in traditional forms of employment, an extension of Universal Credit's "Minimum Income Floor" requirement from 12 to 24 months to allow businesses to establish themselves and any hours  not guaranteed through the contract to have a higher minimum wage rate, set by the Low Pay Commission.  
  • F28: Encouraging Companies to be Responsible Corporate Citizens: This motion acknowledges the public appetite for companies to be more transparent, more accountable for their failings and more diverse in their make-up. Policies put forward include requiring any UK public limited company and private companies with more than 200 employees to have 1 employee representative on their board, who is given the same legal duties and responsibilities of other directors, creation of stakeholder advisory panels and a rebalancing of the Companies Act 2006 so that directors think about the long-term future of the company, "including a duty of care of the common good". The Lib Dems also want to see "an explicit "public interest" test when considering approvals for takeovers of large or strategically significant companies by overseas-based owners" and a strengthening of existing laws regarding "criminal responsibility for harm arising from a blameworthy corporate failure" so companies are fined appropriately.
  • F31A: Emergency Motion: UK Government Treatment of Disabled People: The Lib Dems contend that the Government have failed in their duty to protect disabled people in the UK as they are being denied rights set out in the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (UN CRPD), pointing out that the Government has not listened to recommendations made by the UN CRPD committee, the House of Lords Select Committee, the UKIM and reports that have been submitted by disability organisations. The Lib Dems would incorporate the UN CRPD into domestic law, strengthening the current Equality Act so that all disabled people  are empowered to challenge all forms of discrimination and prejudice. The Lib Dems want to see the Government review their policy platform and report back to Parliament within 12 months, demonstrating how they are adapting their policies to adhere to recommendations made in the UN CRPD report and the Lords Select Committee report. 
  • F31B: Emergency Motion: Recruitment and Retention of Teachers With the figures from UCAS showing that the number of graduates who had started teacher training courses in England had fallen by 10% compared with last year, the Lib Dems believe that the Government needs to commission an urgent review to help identify the key factors that have lead to a decline in graduates wanting to enter teaching, as well as continuing to campaign to scrap the 1% pay cap and cuts to frontline state school and college budgets. The Lib Dems believe that the Government should work more closely with higher education providers and organisations such as Teach First to help fill teacher training places with high quality graduates, especially in Science, Technology, Engineering, Maths and the Arts. The Lib Dems want to see the Government working with Ofsted to reform the school inspection programme, with inspectors examining teachers average workload and staff recruitment and retention rates in order to get school senior management to take action to improve the wellbeing of teaching staff if they are failing to meet minimum standards. The Lib Dems believe that all teachers should be entitled to fully funded Continuing Professional Development opportunities. The Lib Dems are also campaigning for the creation of a Royal College of Teachers "to oversee the delivery of CPD opportunities and awarding Qualified Teacher Status". 
  • F32: Protecting Small Businesses: The Lib Dems want to introduce a "Pub Cap" which would see business rate increases for all public houses, restaurants, hotels and cafes limited to 12.5% in England as part of a review into the Business Rate system. 
  • F34: Gun and Knife Crime: The Lib Dems argue that tackling gun and knife crime needs to be a major priority for the Conservative Minority Government, police forces and community groups; there was a 13-14% increase in gun crime in 2016 according to the Office For National Statistics. This motions calls for closer collaboration between police forces and faith organisations to engage with young people to reduce gun and knife crime, funding community groups and grassroots charities such as Redthread and Growing Against Violence (GAV) as well as creating mentoring schemes and conflict resolution and mediation training for all students before they leave full-time education. The Lib Dems believe that amnesties should be created on a regular basis so that people are encouraged to hand over their guns and knives in a safe and secure manner. The Lib Dems also want more funding for local police forces so that they can recruit more Police Community Support Officers who can decide how to use Stop and Search Powers more appropriately.
Cable's keynote speech and Brexit: 
It's true that the Lib Dems have crafted themselves as the only party that is committed to delivering an #ExitFromBrexit. Such a bold disavowal of the Brexit project may attract voters who strongly backed Remain during the EU Referendum last year and despair at seeing some Labour members and MPs and most Conservative members and MPs advocating for a process that appears to have a flawed and dangerous outcome for the UK's economic prosperity and socio-cultural fabric from the outset. For Remain voters and for those Leave voters (no matter how small the percentage might happen to be) who are disillusioned with the process, they now clearly have the chance to vote for a centrist party that undeniably aims to advocate for them.

Sir Vince Cable said in his keynote speech on Wednesday 20th September (https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/vince-cables-conference-speech-full-text/) that the Lib Dems are not calling for a second referendum on Brexit (what Cable calls "the product of a fraudulent and frivolous campaign led by two groups of silly public schoolboys...reliving their dormitory days"- very sassy Vince) but calling "for a first referendum on the facts". Cable states that UK voters "have a right to change their mind", calling Brexiteers who oppose this idea "masochists" who "believe in the slogan of dictators everywhere: "one person, one vote, once". The Lib Dem's Opposing Brexit motion makes it clear that 16 and 17 year olds, EU Citizens resident in the UK and British Citizens who are resident overseas should be able to vote in this referendum who I thought should have had a say in the initial referendum, since the decision to Brexit affects their lives just as much as mine and those who were eligible to vote.

Cable was right to suggest to PM May to "take the issue of European nationals in the UK and British nationals in the EU out of the (Brexit) negotiations" by declaring the "Right To Stay" right now; it's ridiculous that nothing has yet been 100% agreed and such an agreement would generate some goodwill with our EU neighbours.

Cable was also quite scathing of Jeremy Corbyn's attitude towards Brexit: "If Jeremy Corbyn sits on the fence any longer, he is in danger of being sliced up the middle by the serrated edge". #Ouchie. I have to say that Labour's position has certainly appeared at times as if it's all over the shop but it might be because Corbyn doesn't want to do any irreputable damage to his coalition base of support that he's built up; if Corbyn comes out as anti-Brexit (I'd crack open a bottle of Prosecco myself if he did), it is suggested that pro-Brexit voters in the North would vote Tory in their droves based on wanting to ensure that the Brexit process is completed but if Corbyn comes out as a super Hard Brexit-lover akin to PM May, he'll lose the confidence of Remain voters in marginal constituencies such as Lincoln who are worried about the impact that leaving the Single Market and Customs Union entirely would have on the economy. It's almost as if Corbyn may become a victim of his own success in the end; he will have to disappoint one group of hardline referendum voters in the end but it's remains unclear which group it will be.

Cable made an appeal for the Lib Dems to work with Remain supporters in other parties on a cross-party basis, declaring them the "political adults" in the Brexit debate. As an independent who voted Labour at the last election and was also a strong Remain supporter, I can see the merits of working cross-party to try and convince Jeremy Corbyn to decide to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and remain a full member of organisations such as EURATOM (and re-join the treaty negotiations currently taking place) but slyly calling Leave voters in other parties not political adults (i.e. political kidults) is probably not going to do anything to endear Cable to them as potential Prime Minister material.

Naturally Cable has received blowback from a variety of Brexiteers and commentators/opinion columnists alike for the comments made in his speech. Rachel Cunliff, comment and features editor at City AM, argues that despite concerns business owners have over "access to the Single Market, regulatory barriers, skills shortages and the precarious state of EU citizens (working in the UK)" , they do not want a second referendum on Brexit or indeed a first referendum on the terms of the deal because business owners are looking now for certainty "over regulations, trade tariffs, visas and law" (http://www.cityam.com/272333/business-does-not-want-second-eu-vote-whatever-vince-cable). To them, Brexit has been settled. Now it's important to mention that there are no stats given in Cunliff's opinion editorial that backs up that claim but the Institute of Directors did call on all UK political parties to not advocate for a second referendum, with Allie Renson, head of EU and trade policy stating that time spent on getting a transitional deal and free trade agreement in place would be wasted if a second referendum result showed a clear rejection of the Brexit deal. Generally, stats from polling surveys do indicate little support for a second referendum currently. What The EU Thinks, a non-partisan website mentions a Survation poll that stated that 36% of respondents want a 2nd referendum but 55% were opposed (http://whatukthinks.org/eu/has-the-election-seen-a-change-in-attitudes-towards-brexit/). However, when a question was asked about the possibility of a referendum after the terms of the Brexit deal is known, 46% supported the idea and 47% opposed it. Much more evenly balanced (http://whatukthinks.org/eu/has-the-election-seen-a-change-in-attitudes-towards-brexit/). Also relevant to note is recent reporting from the Federation of Small Businesses which states that its small business confidence index has fallen from +15 in the second quarter of 2017 to just +1 in the third quarter. 70% of small businesses have reported a rise in operating costs compared to the second quarter of 2016 with payroll costs, rent and taxation all increasing. 1 out of 8 entrepreneurs also said they expect to downsize, close or sell their business (https://www.ft.com/content/5b209b54-9c82-11e7-8cd4-932067fbf946?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6).  However, exporters remain optimistic, with 39% reporting an increase in online sales. It's not all doom and gloom but if small business performance and confidence does not improve as we get closer to the Brexit deal being completed, there may be increasing calls from small business owners for a referendum on the terms of the deal.

Cunliff goes on in her article to contend that Cable cannot be a leader for Remain voters and a leader for business because being a leader for Remain voters would end up expending his political capital. Instead Cunliff wants to see Cable listen to business leaders and develop "a new industrial strategy and smart, practical approaches to nurture innovation and entrepreneurship"(forgetting that it was the Lib Dems who helped "launch and pursue" the initial Industrial Strategy whilst in Coalition with the Tories. There are plenty of Lib Dem voters who are business owners who may disagree that seeking an #ExitFromBrexit and being pro-business are mutually exclusive. Regardless of your view on Brexit, there is always room in the political arena for sensible business-focussed policies and the fact that the Lib Dems have been working on some has been evidenced by the passed conference motions F28 and F34 that I have referenced above. Perhaps it was fair to Cunliff to suggest that no new industrial strategy was presented at the conference but I have no doubt that there are Lib Dem members and MPs who are helping to craft such an industrial strategy in the event that another election be called before or just after the negotiated Brexit deal is brought to Parliament and is rejected (there is still the possibility that a Brexit deal may be rejected by Labour MPs, if it fails to meet the tests set out by Sir Keir Starmer, Shadow Secretary for Exiting the EU). Besides which, you don't actually have to be a supporter of Brexit to take an interest in developing future trading policies or look at improving transparency, accountability and diversity in corporate boardrooms.

Paris Gourtsoyannis argues in his article in The Scotsman (http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/paris-gourtsoyannis-lib-dems-go-looking-for-lost-voters-1-4563696) that actually not all Lib Dem MPs agree entirely with Cable's Brexit approach. Jo Swinson, for example, stated that an #ExitFromBrexit through a referendum approach may not be possible and that activists need to support a Soft Brexit approach with a long transition deal, with the hope that the UK then reenters the EU at a later date. Alistair Carmichael highlights the pressing need for an in-depth national conversation on the merits of EU membership so that there was at least a chance of a clear majority of voters deciding against the Tory crafted Brexit deal in a future referendum. Some grassroots Lib Dem campaigners are frustrated with a limp Brexit approach, with one member notably calling for Article 50 to be reversed in an attempt to reassert parliamentary democracy. Hmm.

Brexshit Brexshit Brexshit I cry in my head. Luckily, Sir Vince didn't just mention Brexit in his speech. There was his sassy reference to the "Giant Tweeter" Donnie Drumpf who Cable says should have his official state visit cancelled. There was an announcement that the Lib Dems would look to establish a new life-long learning fund, that would be paid for via a tax on wealth, for people to spend when and how they wanted, with the aim of learning new skills that would help their chances of career progression and allow them to diversify to improve their income. Cable also wants the party to explore replacing tuition fees paid upfront with a graduate tax. There was a firm promise to tackle the housing shortage, with a desire to impose "fierce tax penalties" on foreign investors who only buy houses for investment purposes (which probably would appeal to some Brexiteers) and also a tax on second homes (including holiday homes) in rural areas; Cable said that the Lib Dems "must end the stranglehold of oligarchs and speculators in the housing market". Cable also advocated for the lifting of the ban on councils borrowing to build new social  housing. In addition to these policies, Cable reiterated existing policy on NHS and Social Care funding, stating that he still supports increasing the rate of income tax by 1p in the £1  as well as reducing the voting age to 16 and create a fully elected House of Lords. That's good news to voters who argue that there is no need for hereditary peers and Church of England Bishops to have an automatic place to influence political decisions. When other Christian denominations and other religious groups are not represented solely on the basis of religion in the House of Lords, why should we hold onto archaic traditions that seem anti-democratic in the 21st century? 

One can certainly detect a defiantly positive mood amongst some delegates in the Lib Dem party at the moment. Cable's keynote speech was bold, sassy and demonstrated a keen desire to improve the fortunes of the party. Yet it is true to say that the Lib Dems still have more to do to regain the trust of voters, especially amongst students, graduates and business leaders who would be inclined to vote for their policies. I believe that policy announcements on protecting and improving the rights of disabled people, improving the recruitment and retention rate of teachers and tapping into the importance of funded lifelong learning will attract some voters who value the importance of education and training and are passionate about holding the Government to account for their failure to reform their policies towards disabled people but whether such policies are enough to encourage Labour or bright blue remain Tory voters in marginal Tory-Lib Dem constituencies such as Richmond Park (0.04% swing needed) and St Ives (0.30% swing needed) remains to be seen. Fife North East, with only 2 votes between the Lib Dems and the Scottish National Party is certainly one battleground constituency worth watching at the next general election where maybe such policies as announced at this autumn conference and subsequent ones could make all the difference.

Lesley Riddoch in her The Scotsman opinion ed offers a glimmer of hope for Lib Dems who want to see the Tories defeated at the next election. Riddoch states quite openly that the party may struggle to appeal to voters looking for radical solutions to inequality alone but if they carried out "bold joint action with Labour to combat inequality", it could be a "real game-changer" (http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/lesley-riddoch-lib-dems-may-have-something-to-offer-after-all-1-4562856). Positive cross-party collaboration on a variety of issues, not just Brexit could be an ideal way forward and I know from experience following the political scene in Lincoln that Lib Dems, Labour, Greens (and sometimes Tories too) can share ideas and work together for the common good; for example, Lincoln's Green Party candidate for the 2017 election, Dr Ben Loryman recently created a petition which calls for rural GPs to be put on the shortage list (https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/200523) and Caroline Kenyon, the Lib Dem candidate for Lincoln signed and retweeted the petition on Twitter so that others could get involved with the petition. A great example of cross-party collaboration at a local level and a spirit we need to see more of in the UK.

The Lib Dem conference itself seems to have divided opinion. Most conference delegates left believing that substantive policy motions had been passed that would help to attract new voters to the party whilst commentators seem to have focussed on the party's anti-Brexit position without talking about much else. Whilst it's true that support for a referendum on the terms of the deal will not happen without the support of the majority of Labour MPs, at least it's out there on the table as an option. Whether the keynote speech has improved or hurt Cable's chances of expanding the Lib Dems' support base remains to be seen but Cable has started a conversation that certain Brexiteers do not want voters to focus on, with the main question being: "should voters have the final say on the deal and have the option to reject and remain in the EU as opposed to leaving without a deal and relying on World Trade Organisation terms?" Time will tell whether we see huge changes in public opinion.

On a lighter note, I have to say I was well jel of the EU themed berets that were popping up all over the place; if someone can start an Ebay store selling them I'd very much appreciate it! 

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